Forecasting sets the scene for your activity and gives you clarity on campaign performance
Acquisition is the lifeblood of individual giving. For UK charities, bringing new supporters on board is more challenging—and more vital—than ever. But in a climate of rising costs, shifting donor behaviour, and increased scrutiny on ROI, acquisition can’t be left to chance. That’s why robust forecasting in individual giving is now a non-negotiable for successful fundraising teams.
The changing landscape of individual giving
Recent research from Woods Valldata shows that while income growth remains a top priority for individual giving fundraisers, acquisition is a close second. However, the sector is facing headwinds: Civil Society reported in March 2025 the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF) UK Giving Report found that although total giving reached £15.4bn last year, the number of people donating has dropped to its lowest level since 2016, with 5.2 million fewer donors than in 2019. The decline is especially pronounced among younger donors, with only 36% of 16–24-year-olds giving in 2024, down from 52% in 2019. Yet, the average monthly donation has increased to £72, suggesting that while fewer people are giving, those who do are giving more.
In this environment, acquisition strategies must be laser-focused and data-driven. As highlighted in our blog, How to achieve your individual giving fundraising goals, diversification of acquisition channels—such as cash giving, face-to-face, and telemarketing—remains crucial. But it’s not just about reaching more people; it’s about reaching the right people and building relationships that last.
Why forecasting in individual giving matters
Forecasting is the bridge between ambition and achievement. It enables fundraising teams to more accurately manage budgets, test improvements, set stakeholder expectations and respond quickly to changing conditions such as a sudden drop in response rates.
As discussed in many of our sector insights, acquisition and retention are two sides of the same coin. Bringing in new supporters is only half the battle; keeping them engaged and giving is where long-term value is realised. Forecasting helps you understand not just how many donors you might acquire, but how many will stay—and what that means for your charity’s income over time.
Practical tools for smarter acquisition
To support charities in this critical area, our sister agency, Sequoia Insights, has developed a free forecasting tool designed specifically for fundraising teams. This tool allows you to:
- Project ROI and break-even for regular giving recruitment
- Test different attribution, spend and campaign volume scenarios
- Instantly see retention, income and break-even predictions
- Use industry benchmark retention metrics or tailor inputs with your own data
Whether you’re assessing a new campaign or reviewing current spend, the tool provides fast, easy-to-use projections that give you confidence in your decisions. If you need support with other budgeting or scenario planning, Sequoia’s team is happy to help.
For a deeper dive into acquisition forecasting, Jon Kelly reveals more in his blog looking at: acquisition – what you need to know.
Learning from the sector
Our recent Beyond F2F webinar brought together experts from across the sector to discuss the challenges and opportunities in supporter acquisition. The consensus? Charities must innovate, adapt, and—crucially—forecast. With an average 8.6% decline in new supporter recruitment in 2024, traditional channels are under pressure, but digital and alternative approaches are showing promise.
Retention remains a vital part of the mix. As highlighted in The Lowdown 2024, getting the right supporters in—and then retaining them—creates loyalty and long-term value. Personalised communication and meaningful engagement are key to fostering this loyalty.
Key takeaways for individual giving managers
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Forecasting in individual giving is essential for acquisition success in today's challenging environment
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Use data-driven tools to model different scenarios and make informed decisions
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diversify your acquisition channels and focus on building long-term relationships
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Retention and acquisition must be planned together for sustainable growth
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Leverage sector insights and benchmarking to stay ahead
Try forecasting for free
Ready to take your acquisition forecasting in individual giving to the next level? Try the Sequoia Insight forecasting tool for free and see how data-driven projections can transform your fundraising strategy or give us a call to talk about where we can support you more.
